There are perhaps more souls lost through a false confidence of salvation than by any other deceit the Devil makes use of. I do not mean those notorious sinners, but among the more decent formalists, who because they have never fallen into any foul, gross sins, or because their lives are somewhat reformed, and they practice some outward duties, make no doubt of the safety of their state. Yet they have no union with Christ by faith; the great renovating change has never been wrought in them; their natures are still unrenewed, their hearts unsanctified; they never saw and bewailed their own vileness; they never felt their real need of a Savior, in a way of renunciation of their own righteousness. They do not pant and labor after higher degrees of grace and holiness, like a true child of God, who can never rest contented with his present attainments [of grace]. They [the deceived] keep plodding on in the same beaten track, vainly thinking to divide their hearts between God and the world and content themselves with a formal, lifeless, luke-warm religion, which only tends to their greater delusion. Thus they go on dreaming of heaven till they awake in hell. Sir Richard Hill
This is such an important statement about how the evil one works to deceive people that the same idea should be dealt with from the pulpit on a regular basis. We may smile at the thought (or mourn) of those who have a false confidence of salvation while they live in sin. We may understand how people are deceived about their salvation because they are serious about their religion and morality, though we may be surprised at it when those type fall away. But it shocks us to think that people who make a confession of faith and make a drastic turn in their life from immorality and morality. These people are reformed in their morality and they will start becoming more and more committed in their religious duties. But these people are not truly converted.
One of the main problems with how the deceitfulness of the evil one works is that the Gospel of grace alone and regeneration by grace alone seems to be lost (for the most part) in this day. While the doctrine of justification by faith alone as stated in the creeds is agreed to, that does not guarantee or even make it likely that people are truly converted. There is a massive difference between a person believing that justification by faith alone is true and actually being justified by faith alone. One of the reasons for people being mislead about the true Gospel is that they are mislead about what it means to be truly converted and that this happens by grace. Another reason is that people are not taught about the true nature of faith nor about how a person must quit believing in self and free-will before a person will look to Christ alone.
When the true nature of the Gospel and the true nature of faith has been compromised (at best), people will believe the facts of believe from fleshly wills and think that they are converted. If a moral reformation occur, then that is seen as a sure evidence that a person is converted. A moral reformation must happen, to be sure, but that is no guarantee that a person is truly converted. As people can believe in a way that is from their flesh, be religious in a way that is from the flesh, so they can have a moral reformation that is from the flesh. All of this can happen under a cloak or orthodox religion. As Hill notes, these people are not united to Christ by faith and they have not had the renovation of their nature by the Spirit of the living God. Apart from those things, all of their orthodoxy, all of their religion, and all of their moral reformations are nothing but works of the flesh. All that these people do is from their fleshly nature though indeed they may be singing the praises of Jesus who did it all.
It is far better to be a poor broken sinner with many doubts who knows that s/he has a weak faith than to be a very confident religionist with strong confidence. It is far better to be poor in spirit while looking to Christ for crumbs of spiritual bread than it is to be one that knows vast amounts of theology and the Bible with a strong confidence, but all of that is from the flesh. It is better to be weak so that His grace will be our strength than have vast amounts of confidence from the flesh without grace. It is better to have a little grace to where the poor sinner bemoans his lack of faith and grace than to be one strong and confident in the flesh and yet deceived that s/he has grace while s/he has no grace. Yet we have the proud and self-confident running things in the professing churches because they appear to have true faith and a strong faith. The one with true faith may be one that has many doubts and fears while continuing on in his or her pursuit of Christ. The deceptions of the evil one are strong and the world is so backwards as to the nature of true faith. But Christ will keep His sheep despite their weakness and their little faith.
God Loves... Himself 
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